After a lull last week, the stock markets are bracing themselves for the biggest event of the year—the Union Budget. For the past several weeks, the markets have been very volatile and have displayed a negative bias tracking global cues.
This was primarily due to the fact there were no positive triggers in the domestic economy. Weekly inflation numbers, monthly industrial output statistics and projected annual Gross domestic product (GDP) figures lacked surprises and were more or less on expected lines.
Negative sentiments on bourses, largely driven by a fear of heights (the recent highs of Sensex) also seem to be overdone, though TV experts on stock markets will not really agree with me. Now, everyone is hoping that the Budget will bring in some positive sentiments.
What the Budget will actually deliver is anybody’s guess. But one thing that looks certain is that it will have no negative surprises, and that will be good news for the markets.
The main difference between this Budget and previous ones is on the expectations front. Unlike previous budgets, there are no major expectations on the part of the markets and investors from this one.
Issues such as taxation, rationalization of duties, etc., are most likely to be liberalized, so the markets do not have too many apprehensions.
From a macro-economic point of view, the markets have adopted a “wait-and-watch” attitude that will continue in the initial part of this week. Till the time the Budget unfolds and the markets look to domestic factors for triggers, global cues, mainly from the US, will continue to drive global markets.
Looking forward, Friday’s spurt on the US bourses in the last half an hour of trading could bring in some cheer on bourses on Monday. US stocks bounced back sharply on news that banks were near an agreement to bail out bond insurer Ambac Financial, a deal that could prevent further damage to the banking industry and credit markets of the US.
I have been maintaining for some weeks that market- moving news from the US markets will actually come from bond insurers. If Friday’s market talk turns into reality, then there could be a turnaround on bourses globally despite looming fears of a recession in the US.
It is expected that the bail-out plan for Ambac Financial will take some shape by Monday or latest by Tuesday. I think this will pep up the mood on bourses in Asia, when they resume trading on Monday.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/mint/20080225/r_t_mint_bs_budget08/tbs-everyone-is-hoping-budget-will-bring-a839eca.html
This was primarily due to the fact there were no positive triggers in the domestic economy. Weekly inflation numbers, monthly industrial output statistics and projected annual Gross domestic product (GDP) figures lacked surprises and were more or less on expected lines.
Negative sentiments on bourses, largely driven by a fear of heights (the recent highs of Sensex) also seem to be overdone, though TV experts on stock markets will not really agree with me. Now, everyone is hoping that the Budget will bring in some positive sentiments.
What the Budget will actually deliver is anybody’s guess. But one thing that looks certain is that it will have no negative surprises, and that will be good news for the markets.
The main difference between this Budget and previous ones is on the expectations front. Unlike previous budgets, there are no major expectations on the part of the markets and investors from this one.
Issues such as taxation, rationalization of duties, etc., are most likely to be liberalized, so the markets do not have too many apprehensions.
From a macro-economic point of view, the markets have adopted a “wait-and-watch” attitude that will continue in the initial part of this week. Till the time the Budget unfolds and the markets look to domestic factors for triggers, global cues, mainly from the US, will continue to drive global markets.
Looking forward, Friday’s spurt on the US bourses in the last half an hour of trading could bring in some cheer on bourses on Monday. US stocks bounced back sharply on news that banks were near an agreement to bail out bond insurer Ambac Financial, a deal that could prevent further damage to the banking industry and credit markets of the US.
I have been maintaining for some weeks that market- moving news from the US markets will actually come from bond insurers. If Friday’s market talk turns into reality, then there could be a turnaround on bourses globally despite looming fears of a recession in the US.
It is expected that the bail-out plan for Ambac Financial will take some shape by Monday or latest by Tuesday. I think this will pep up the mood on bourses in Asia, when they resume trading on Monday.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/mint/20080225/r_t_mint_bs_budget08/tbs-everyone-is-hoping-budget-will-bring-a839eca.html
